June 2009
Comment: Hard times. Are the banks helping?
The news last week that the economy's output (GDP) had fallen by 1.0 percent in the three months to March sends shivers down the spine.
The news last week that the economy's output (GDP) had fallen by 1.0 percent in the three months to March sends shivers down the spine.
Comment
So, what to think about the Budget. This was never going to be an easy one in the midst of economic and financial crisis. Whoever won the 2008 election would have had difficult decisions to make. It said something about the quality of the election campaign that such matters were barely discussed, even when it became obvious that an economic storm was rapidly approaching.
All eyes will be on the Budget at the end of May to see whether or not the Government has not only set out a credible plan for fiscal and economic management, but is also responding with sufficient scale and urgency to the deepening recession. Back in February, the response to the global financial crisis was being viewed as primarily about jobs.
This is my 100th Bulletin. It is not quite my last. Our new economist takes over in May. I have found over the years that unionists value a statistical update that focuses on the measures that matter to them. Of course statistics can be misused. And sometimes a statistic can be accurate but still mislead without other details to round out the story. For instance, China has surpassed the USA as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases but per capita emissions in the USA are 6 times that of China. And one I often remind people of is that while it is true that in New Zealand, 97 percent of enterprises employ 19 or fewer people, the other 3 percent of enterprises employ 69 percent of the workforce and 68 percent of enterprises employ no-one at all. It is also relevant that around 96 percent of Australian firms employ fewer than 20 workers.
Economics is sometimes called the "dismal science". It is certainly living up to its reputation. But it is the dismal outlook for workers and others that is of greatest concern. It is of no comfort to point out the origins of this economic crisis.
Discussion document for the government Jobs Summit 27 February 2009.
The current economic crisis was not created by workers. But they are paying for it. This financial crisis was not about too much government, too much regulation, or wages being "too high". As The Economist said this week in its leader - financial markets were 'plagued by poor regulation, dangerous incentives and the reckless use of mathematical models". There were some underlying factors such as falling productivity and low wages that pushed investment towards high risk financial products and households towards high levels of debt. But the causes of this crisis are now clearly seen as due to crazy levels of leverage, completely inadequate supervision of the finance sector and shameful exploitation of low income households using highly dubious financial products.
As the Economist wryly observed this week, some in the West used to say that the only thing that could save China was capitalism: now they are saying that the only thing that can save capitalism is China.
Tough times lie ahead but there is considerable uncertainty about the extent of the impact on the real economy from the global financial crisis. In the midst of this uncertainty we have an election! For workers this highlights the differences between the political parties in terms of worker rights, employment, and security. There have been welcome similarities emerging - for instance on relief for workers made redundant. But when it comes to the crunch - who is it that actually believes in enhancing and protecting workers' incomes, and work rights?
Short Term Stimulus for Long Term Gain
NZCTU Discussion Paper on Current Economic Issues in the New Zealand Economy
30th October 2008
Download the full paper here [27] (Word doc, 255 kb).
Introduction
Links:
[1] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin103
[2] http://union.org.nz/user/editorpolicy
[3] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/64
[4] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63
[5] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/108
[6] http://union.org.nz/policy/ctu-monthly-economic-bulletin-no-102-may-2009
[7] http://union.org.nz/user/editornews
[8] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin101
[9] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/136
[10] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin100
[11] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/119
[12] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/130
[13] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/131
[14] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin99
[15] http://union.org.nz/policy/ctu-discussion-document-for-employment-summit
[16] http://union.org.nz/test-vocabulary/discussion-document
[17] http://union.org.nz/test-vocabulary/employment
[18] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/62
[19] http://union.org.nz/test-vocabulary/jobs-summit
[20] http://union.org.nz/test-vocabulary/recession
[21] http://union.org.nz/test-vocabulary/redundancy
[22] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin98
[23] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin97
[24] http://union.org.nz/policy/economicbulletin96
[25] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/137
[26] http://union.org.nz/policy/short-term-stimulus-for-long-term-gain
[27] http://union.org.nz/sites/union/files/Short-Term-Stimulus-Oct2008.doc
[28] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=1
[29] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=2
[30] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=3
[31] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=4
[32] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=5
[33] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=6
[34] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=7
[35] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=8
[36] http://union.org.nz/taxonomy/term/63?page=10