"Green shoots" is the phrase of the year. It is used to hint that the winter of recession is ending. Newspapers, politicians, and most recently the Governor of the Reserve Bank, are constantly reporting sightings. We find it hard to give them the significance they seem to claim. As reported below, unemployment came in at an unexpectedly high 6.0 percent in June, and Treasury is still forecasting that unemployment will peak at 8 percent in the September quarter next year, 2010. What is even more concerning about those forecasts are that they project that it will take much longer for unemployment to fall than it has taken to rise. Their forecast is for unemployment to be still at 7.5 percent at March 2011 (with 167,000 people looking for jobs), and 6.3 percent in March 2012 (141,000 people).