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Monthly Economic Bulletin – July 2023

Welcome to the July edition of the Economic Bulletin. In this month’s Bulletin, we cost National’s current policy proposals for the next Parliament and compare this with the funding available in future budgets. We show that the size of National’s current commitments exceeds the available funding in the operating allowances by $3.3bn–$5.2bn. This spending creates a fiscal gap that would need to be filled with additional revenue, additional borrowing, asset sales, or additional spending cuts above what has already been announced. In short, there is a significant fiscal gap between National’s promises and its current ability to deliver.

In our regular updates, we discuss the employment and inflation statistics for the June quarter, which show that New Zealand’s labour market remains strong, wage growth has been broad based, and consumer inflation has fallen faster than expected. We also discuss the latest migration, trade, consumer confidence, and housing data, and take a look at the government’s accounts.

As always, we welcome your feedback and any suggestions for areas of future investigation.